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东北证券:全球天然气需求远未达峰 建议关注中国石油等
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-18 03:58

Group 1: Global Natural Gas Market Outlook - Global natural gas demand is far from peaking, with LNG expected to become the primary trading method [1] - By 2030, global natural gas production is projected to reach 4.56 trillion cubic meters, with a CAGR of 1.6% from 2023 to 2030 [1] - Global LNG capacity is anticipated to exceed 90 million tons by 2030, indicating ongoing expansion in the LNG sector [1] Group 2: Domestic Natural Gas Consumption and Supply - China's apparent natural gas consumption is expected to reach 4,234.65 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Natural gas imports in China are projected to be 132 million tons in 2024, a 9.8% increase year-on-year, with foreign dependency exceeding 40% [2] - The CAGR for natural gas production in China from 2014 to 2024 is estimated at 7.2% [2] Group 3: Infrastructure Development - By the end of 2024, China's total long-distance natural gas pipeline mileage is expected to reach 128,000 kilometers, forming a strategic pipeline network [3] - The LNG receiving capacity has reached a historical high, with 32 operational LNG receiving stations and a total unloading capacity of 14.4 million tons per year [3] - The gas storage and peak-shaving capacity has increased by 17.4% year-on-year, reaching 27 billion cubic meters [3] Group 4: Market Development and Pricing Mechanism - Since 2015, China has implemented various reforms to establish a price linkage mechanism for natural gas, promoting marketization [4] - The dual pricing system for natural gas has been largely eliminated, and a market framework has been established [4] - Residential natural gas prices have been gradually increased across multiple provinces and cities [4]