封面文章｜王道平 沈欣燕 王业东：不断深化的地缘经济风险与人民币国际化战略

Group 1 - The article discusses the increasing geopolitical economic risks that pose systemic challenges to macroeconomic stability through various channels such as trade, investment, and financial markets, highlighting the importance of RMB internationalization as a strategic response to these uncertainties [1][11][14] - Since 2018, China's geopolitical economic risk has sharply increased, primarily due to the trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration, which has led to a fundamental shift in the international competitive landscape [5][6] - The article constructs a Geopolitical Economic Risk Index (GER) to reflect the dynamic evolution of geopolitical economic risks faced by China since 1979, showing a significant increase in risk levels post-2018 [3][5] Group 2 - The article identifies six key areas of geopolitical economic risk, including trade risk, investment risk, technology risk, financial risk, supply chain risk, and other risks, providing a detailed analysis of their evolution and relative importance [5][6][10] - Trade and investment risks have been significant drivers of the recent increase in geopolitical economic risks, with trade-related risks remaining at historically high levels since the onset of the US-China trade conflict [6][11] - The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated supply chain-related geopolitical economic risks, highlighting vulnerabilities in global production networks and prompting discussions on supply chain "decoupling" [7][11] Group 3 - Geopolitical economic risks have a profound impact on China's economy, suppressing foreign economic activities and altering corporate behavior towards prioritizing supply chain security over efficiency [11][12] - The rise in geopolitical economic risks leads to increased uncertainty in future cash flows for companies, resulting in higher equity risk premiums and lower stock prices, thereby affecting investor confidence [12][13] - The article emphasizes that geopolitical economic risks also influence domestic price levels, with supply chain disruptions and trade barriers contributing to inflationary pressures on consumer prices [13] Group 4 - RMB internationalization is positioned as a strategic measure to safeguard trade and supply chain security, reducing reliance on the US dollar and enhancing the resilience of China's economic framework [14][15] - A more internationalized RMB is expected to stabilize domestic financial markets and enhance the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, providing a buffer against external shocks [16] - The article advocates for RMB internationalization as a means to participate in global economic governance and mitigate systemic risks associated with dollar hegemony, promoting a more balanced international monetary system [17][18]