特朗普没打算放过印度，中国贵客关键时刻来访，有要事跟莫迪面谈

Core Points - The U.S. Trade Representative's office unexpectedly canceled a planned visit to New Delhi, coinciding with the imposition of a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, marking the highest tariffs imposed by the U.S. on a major trading partner [1][15] - The cancellation of the visit dashed India's hopes for last-minute negotiations to alleviate tariff pressures, especially as the U.S. had recently reached a temporary agreement with China [1][3] - Tensions between the U.S. and India have escalated due to unresolved trade negotiations, particularly in agriculture, dairy, and energy sectors, with the U.S. demanding greater market access and a halt to Russian oil imports [3][5] Trade Relations - India's government faces significant challenges in complying with U.S. demands, as nearly 60% of its population relies on agriculture, and energy security is a critical concern due to high dependence on oil imports [5][9] - The Modi administration has initiated a "self-reliant India" strategy, which includes plans for domestic semiconductor production and tax reforms, aiming to bolster its industrial base amid trade tensions [7][11] - Despite these efforts, bureaucratic delays and project setbacks have hindered foreign investment, with an average delay of 18 months for foreign projects [7][9] Economic Impact - The Indian government has developed a three-phase response plan to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, focusing on export tax rebates for heavily affected sectors, retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, and potential WTO litigation [9][13] - However, these measures are expected to only alleviate approximately $725 million in losses, which is minimal compared to India's nearly $100 billion annual exports to the U.S. [9][11] - Concurrently, China has increased its engagement with India, highlighting the growing economic interdependence between the two nations, with bilateral trade expected to exceed $136 billion by mid-2025 [11][15] Strategic Considerations - The evolving trade dynamics reveal a shift in India's foreign policy, as it seeks to balance its strategic autonomy while navigating pressures from both the U.S. and China [13][15] - Modi's government is attempting to diversify its energy sources and enhance domestic production capabilities, while also engaging in multilateral discussions to strengthen its position [13][15] - The upcoming UN General Assembly presents a potential opportunity for U.S.-India dialogue, although India remains firm on not initiating discussions unless the U.S. retracts some tariffs [13][15]