Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-18 05:27Group 1 - The article discusses the trend of deposit migration in China, highlighting that a significant amount of deposits will mature annually, with estimates of 83 trillion, 91 trillion, and 105 trillion yuan for the years 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively, indicating a strong liquidity support for capital markets [1][2] - It is noted that the migration of residents' deposits to capital markets is likely a result of market heat rather than a cause, emphasizing that emotional fluctuations are short-term variables while beliefs are more stable [2][3] - The article suggests that for stable long-term capital market returns, the focus should shift away from narratives that stimulate short-term bull market emotions, as these could negatively impact medium to long-term returns [2][3] Group 2 - The potential of residents' deposits should first be viewed as consumption potential and then as liquidity potential, with a focus on enhancing consumer confidence to boost corporate performance and return on equity (ROE) [3][4] - The article warns against overemphasizing deposit migration as a reason for bull markets, as this could lead to unpredictable micro liquidity states, which may not be beneficial for long-term market development [3][4] - The analysis indicates that the current banking sector has a low price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of about 7 times compared to the overall market PE of 21 times, suggesting that banks, as holders of high-quality debt, present better annualized returns [5][6] Group 3 - The macro liquidity outlook suggests that without additional fiscal budget increases, the current fiscal expansion's year-on-year intensity will begin to decline in August, with social financing growth potentially reaching its peak [4][5] - The article highlights that the liquidity in the interbank bond market may become unstable due to the decline in fixed deposit yields, leading to a shift towards shorter-term deposits and increased unpredictability in market liquidity [4][5] - Investment recommendations emphasize a long-term perspective and balanced allocation, suggesting that banks with superior free cash flow and excess provisions should be prioritized for investment [5][6]