全球市场本周都盯着一个地方：美国杰克逊霍尔

Group 1 - The market is anticipating a rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with over 92% probability for a 25 basis points cut in September, leading to significant gains in interest-sensitive sectors like residential construction [2][3] - Major residential builders such as PulteGroup, Lennar, and D.R. Horton have seen stock price increases ranging from 4.2% to 8.8%, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 1% rise [2] - The strong rebound in residential builders indicates market confidence in a rate cut, making the market vulnerable to sell-offs if signals from Jackson Hole suggest otherwise [2][3] Group 2 - Economic data presents a mixed picture, with inflation pressures remaining persistent; the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in July, the largest increase since January, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) surged by 0.9%, the highest monthly increase in over three years [5] - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with only 73,000 jobs added in July and significant downward revisions of over 250,000 jobs in May and June, leading to internal disagreements within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding rate cuts [5][6] - Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is expected to focus on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework review, which is crucial for maintaining the central bank's long-term independence [6]