千元票价与零适航证：低空“元年”的资本疑虑

Core Insights - The low-altitude economy has rapidly gained attention from policymakers, with 30 provinces incorporating it into their government work reports for 2025, indicating a focus on emerging industries [2][3] - Despite the enthusiasm, actual capital investment remains cautious, with many investors viewing the low-altitude economy as a speculative concept rather than a solid industry opportunity [3][7] - The primary applications of the low-altitude economy, such as cross-sea logistics and air inspections, lack urgent demand, contrasting with the strong support for renewable energy driven by energy security and cost reductions [2][4] Policy and Government Actions - Various local governments have established demonstration zones, allocated special funds, and set up industry funds to stimulate market capital [2][3] - The rapid pace of government initiatives contrasts with the slower response from market capital, which remains in a wait-and-see mode [3][10] - By 2024, there were approximately 43 financing events related to eVTOL, with local government-led funds being the primary investors [3][4] Market Dynamics - The capital path for the low-altitude economy has not opened smoothly compared to other sectors like renewable energy and semiconductors, with local state-owned funds often being the first and only investors in demonstration projects [4][6] - The traditional general aviation sector's main clients are local governments, which have seen tightening budgets, leading to slow market growth over the past decade [4][9] - The eVTOL sector is still in the certification phase, with commercial operations expected to take 3-5 years to materialize [2][4] Investment Landscape - Investors are struggling to establish clear profit models, as eVTOL remains unproven in commercial viability, and general aviation infrastructure lacks independent cash flow [4][6] - The market's projected scale of 2 trillion yuan by 2030 includes indirect sectors, which may inflate perceived market size without reflecting actual cash flow potential [5][10] - The low-altitude economy's commercial viability is hindered by high operational costs and unclear consumer demand, making it difficult for investors to commit [9][10] Challenges and Risks - The lack of necessary infrastructure, such as general airports and takeoff points, further extends the timeline for the low-altitude economy's realization [8][10] - Cultural acceptance of flying and the public's willingness to pay for services remain significant barriers to market expansion [9][10] - The anticipated high costs of eVTOL services may limit their market to niche segments, such as high-end business and tourism, rather than broad consumer adoption [9][11] Future Outlook - The low-altitude economy is seen as a long-term investment, requiring patience and careful capital allocation due to its high initial costs and slow return on investment [15] - Key triggers for capital decisions include breakthroughs in battery technology, regulatory approvals, and the establishment of a viable urban air mobility network [13][14] - The most promising investment opportunities currently lie in established drone services and low-dependency B2B applications, while speculative investments in eVTOL remain high-risk [11][12]