三大预期差引爆市场分歧！30年国债ETF博时(511130)1.92-1.95%或成攻防关键

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond market is currently undergoing an adjustment phase rather than a reversal, with expectations of a potential configuration window for long-term bonds in the coming month and a half [1] - The recent adjustment in the bond market is attributed to the continuous rise in the equity market, leading to a poor performance of bonds in the first half of the year, which has caused a shift in investor sentiment and behavior [1][2] - The current bull market is characterized by a weak dollar since April, resulting in global liquidity easing, as evidenced by the rapid increase in the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 2000 index, which reached approximately 150 times on August 15, marking a historical high [1] Group 2 - The U.S. CPI data for July showed a decline, which, combined with weaker-than-expected non-farm employment data, has led to increased expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, causing a rapid rise in the equity market [2] - However, core CPI data suggests that inflation pressures in the U.S. have not eased, and the PPI data released on August 14 exceeded expectations, leading to a marginal weakening of the U.S. stock market [2] - In the A-share market, the recent rise has been primarily driven by retail investors, while institutional investors remain cautious due to the overall high valuation of equities, resulting in net outflows from broad-based ETFs [5] Group 3 - There are three notable expectation discrepancies in the current market: U.S.-China relations, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, and the funding situation for September [9] - The U.S.-China trade negotiations remain uncertain, with the U.S. gaining more leverage in future discussions due to agreements with other major global powers [9] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma between the pressures of weak non-farm data and persistent inflation, leading to a lower probability of rate cuts in the fourth quarter [9][10] Group 4 - The bond market is expected to experience a temporary respite, with the potential for funds to flow back from equities to bonds as bond valuations improve [10] - The 30-year government bond yield is projected to have a lower limit of 1.92-1.95%, with potential upward resistance at 2.05-2.1%, while the fourth quarter may approach or break the annual low of 1.80% [10] - The 30-year government bond ETF, launched in March 2024, is one of the few long-duration bond ETFs in the market, tracking the performance of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index [11]