贵州茅台(600519)：25H1业绩符合预期 全年目标实现可期

Core Insights - The company reported its 2025 H1 financial results, showing a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit [1] - The revenue contribution from Moutai liquor has increased, with direct sales channels showing significant growth [2] - There is a decline in contract liabilities and cash flow, but overall profitability remains stable [3] Financial Performance - For 2025 H1, the company achieved operating revenue of 893.89 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders of 454.03 billion, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 453.90 billion, representing year-on-year growth of +9.10%, +8.89%, and +8.93% respectively [1] - In Q2 2025, the operating revenue was 387.88 billion, net profit attributable to shareholders was 185.55 billion, and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 185.40 billion, with year-on-year growth of +7.28%, +5.25%, and +5.23% respectively [1] Product and Channel Analysis - In Q2 2025, revenue from Moutai liquor reached 320.32 billion, while series liquor revenue was 67.40 billion, with Moutai liquor's revenue share increasing by 2.61 percentage points to 82.62% [2] - Direct sales revenue grew by +16.52% to 167.89 billion, while wholesale revenue increased by +1.48% to 219.83 billion, with direct sales accounting for 43.30% of total revenue [2] - The number of distributors increased by 192 to 2395, although the average scale per distributor decreased by -1.13% to 16.18 million [2] Market Expansion - Revenue from international markets increased by +27.64% to 17.74 billion, with its share rising by 0.72 percentage points to 4.58%, attributed to the company's efforts in expanding its international market presence [2] Profitability and Cost Management - In Q2 2025, the company's gross margin was 90.42% and net profit margin was 47.84%, showing a slight decline of -0.26 and -0.92 percentage points year-on-year [3] - Operating cash flow decreased by -84.29% to 43.10 billion, influenced by reduced deposits and increased statutory reserves [3] - Contract liabilities fell by -44.86 billion year-on-year to 55.07 billion, with cash sales in Q2 2025 amounting to 389.43 billion, down -4.64% year-on-year [3] Future Outlook - The company has slightly adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting revenue growth of +9%, +7%, and +7% to reach 1903 billion, 2037 billion, and 2175 billion respectively, and net profit growth of +9%, +7%, and +6% to reach 943 billion, 1006 billion, and 1070 billion respectively [3]