景顺：料美联储年底前减息两次 美国国债收益率或继续维持低位

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the US inflation data for July met expectations, alleviating concerns about potential inflation from Trump's tariff policies, and Invesco maintains its forecast for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, each by 25 basis points [1] - The recent mild inflation data, combined with weak employment data from the previous month, supports the rationale for easing monetary policy [1] - The market is closely watching Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, which is traditionally seen as an indicator of the Fed's policy direction in the coming months [1] Group 2 - The yield curve for US Treasury bonds has become steeper since the release of the July CPI data, contrary to expectations that rate cut forecasts would lead to lower long-term yields [1] - Concerns about Trump's escalating criticism of Fed Chair Powell and the potential for Powell's replacement could increase market risks [2] - The recent appointment of E.J. Antoni to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics raises questions about the historical independence of the Fed, potentially disrupting the market [2] Group 3 - Even if the Fed resumes rate cuts later this year, long-term US Treasury yields may still rise, especially if the cuts are less than the approximately 125 basis points currently priced in by the market [2] - A similar situation occurred last year when the Fed only cut rates by 100 basis points, while the market expected nearly 200 basis points, leading to an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield from about 3.7% in September to approximately 4.6% by year-end [2]