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国泰海通:暑运客流高峰将回落 快递多地或跟进提价
Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-18 06:49

Group 1: Aviation Industry - The peak of summer travel is beginning to decline, with expectations for business travel to recover by mid-September [2] - In early August, summer travel maintained a peak with passenger flow increasing over 2% year-on-year and seat occupancy rising by over 1 percentage point [2] - The Civil Aviation Administration of China has initiated a self-regulatory convention to combat "involution" in the industry, which is expected to lead to a reduction in excessive low pricing in the short term [2] Group 2: Express Delivery Industry - Multiple regions are expected to follow suit in raising delivery prices, with regulatory strength determining the sustainability of these increases [3] - The State Post Bureau has emphasized opposition to "involution" competition, leading to price increases in various regions, such as a 0.2 yuan increase in Yiwu and a 0.4 yuan increase in Guangdong [3] - The second half of the year is anticipated to see a recovery in profitability for e-commerce express delivery, with potential for improved earnings elasticity and valuation recovery if price increases continue [3] Group 3: Shipping Industry - Oil shipping rates remain stable, with the Middle East to China VLCC TCE maintaining around $37,000 [4] - Recent discussions between the US and Russia have not resulted in a ceasefire agreement, but concerns about trade restructuring and reduced oil shipping demand are considered limited [4] - Supply rigidity in oil shipping continues, with an expected positive outlook for oil shipping demand growth due to increased crude oil production [4]