Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that recent price rebounds in glass and soda ash futures are driven by expectations of supply reductions in the lithium carbonate industry and stricter environmental inspections in Qinghai, despite stable operational status of local soda ash producers [1][4] - The fundamental data indicates that the soda ash market is under pressure due to oversupply, with domestic production reaching 765,200 tons this week, a 2.31% increase from the previous week, and inventories rising to 1.897 million tons, reflecting a 1.21% week-on-week increase [3][4] - The overall market sentiment remains subdued, with downstream demand primarily focused on maintaining essential purchases, and while exports have been decent, they do not significantly alleviate domestic oversupply pressures [4][8] Group 2 - The soda ash market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern, influenced by policy expectations and high inventory levels, which are likely to suppress price increases [8] - The cost pressures from rising coal prices provide some support for soda ash prices, but this is insufficient to reverse the oversupply situation [4][8] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the speed of inventory digestion and any substantial policy changes regarding production capacity [8]
【纯碱】高库存压制反弹,强预期弱现实博弈延续
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-18 06:56