电解铝：宏观驱动尚可铝价维持高区间震荡

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum price is experiencing sustained high-level fluctuations, with the average daily price of A00 aluminum at 20,700 yuan/ton as of August 15, remaining stable month-on-month and increasing by 8.89% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Macro Factors - The extension of the tariff suspension period between China and the U.S. for another 90 days has reduced risk aversion sentiment [1] - Weak U.S. employment data suggests an increased probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a more positive market sentiment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The market is under pressure from seasonal demand, but inventory levels remain low year-on-year [1] - Supply-side fluctuations are limited, while demand-side seasonal pressures persist, with terminal orders being average and maintaining just-in-time procurement [1] - Social inventory of aluminum ingots continues to accumulate [1] Group 3: Future Market Outlook - Future attention should be paid to potential adjustments in U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs and their impact on market sentiment [1] - Monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions is crucial, as the market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation in the short term [1] - As demand gradually recovers from the seasonal downturn in September, there is an expectation of a stronger market driven by consumption and inventory reduction [1]