Buy Nvidia Stock Ahead of Earnings?

Core Insights - Nvidia is expected to report Q2 2026 earnings at the end of August, with analysts forecasting earnings of $1 per share, up from $0.68 year-over-year, and revenues projected to exceed $45.60 billion, reflecting over 50% year-over-year growth driven by strong demand for GPU chips in generative AI applications [2] - The company has a current market capitalization of $4.4 trillion, with total revenue of $149 billion over the past twelve months, operating profits of $86 billion, and a net income of $77 billion [3] - Historical trends indicate that Nvidia stock has risen 60% of the time following earnings releases, with a median one-day increase of 4.5% and a maximum observed increase of 24% [2][4] Earnings Performance - Over the last five years, Nvidia has recorded 20 earnings data points, with 12 positive and 8 negative one-day returns, resulting in a 60% occurrence of positive returns [4] - The median of positive returns is 4.6%, while the median of negative returns is -6.3% [4] - The percentage of positive returns drops to 58% when considering the last three years [4] Trading Strategies - Event-driven traders may benefit from historical trends by positioning themselves prior to earnings or responding to post-release movements [3] - A strategy involving correlation between short-term and medium-term returns post-earnings can be employed, particularly if 1D and 5D returns show strong correlation [5] - The performance of peer companies can also influence Nvidia's post-earnings stock reactions, as pricing may begin before earnings announcements [6]