楼市寒冬何时了？一线城市也要熬到2026年中后了？

Core Viewpoint - The domestic real estate market is expected to remain under pressure for at least two more years, with a stabilization in first-tier cities not anticipated until mid-2026 [1][3][5]. Market Conditions - UBS analyst Lin Zhenhong revised his earlier optimistic forecast from early 2026 to mid-2026 due to disappointing second-quarter data [5]. - Inventory turnover in first-tier cities increased from 14 months in March to 20.7 months by June, indicating a significant backlog of unsold properties [5]. - Recent data from CRIC shows that new home sales in 30 key cities fell to 823 million square meters, a month-on-month drop of 29% and a year-on-year decrease of 20% [6]. Sales Performance - First-tier cities experienced substantial declines in sales: - Beijing: 300,000 square meters, down 41% month-on-month and 24% year-on-year [6]. - Shanghai: 360,000 square meters, down 35% month-on-month and 36% year-on-year [6]. - Guangzhou: 500,000 square meters, down 37% month-on-month and 25% year-on-year [6]. - Shenzhen: 230,000 square meters, down 30% month-on-month and 35% year-on-year [7]. Developer Strategies - Developers are implementing aggressive strategies to stimulate sales, such as Guangzhou's state-owned enterprise offering a "price guarantee" for buyers [8]. - This tactic aims to address consumer concerns about falling prices, but it is viewed as a short-term measure rather than a sustainable solution for market stabilization [8]. Future Outlook - The likelihood of a market rebound by 2025 is considered very low, with the need for significant policy changes and economic recovery to support a turnaround [9][10]. - Key factors for recovery include the effectiveness of policy adjustments and the overall economic environment, particularly consumer confidence and employment stability [10]. Market Sentiment - Despite the current challenges, there are signs of market self-adjustment, with total new home inventory decreasing compared to last year [11]. - A cautious optimism is advised, as the market is expected to eventually return to rationality, although this may take until 2026 or later [12][13].