可能还有“鹰派惊吓”！市场准备好迎接失望了吗？

Group 1 - The current high level of the US stock market is heavily reliant on the expectation of a rate cut in September, and any hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve during the meeting could trigger a market correction [2] - The S&P 500 index has reached 6400 points, with a year-to-date increase of 10%, driven by strong earnings from large tech companies, which has boosted investor confidence in overall market growth [2] - Despite the anticipation of a rate cut, there is a risk that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may still convey a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation control and suggesting that relatively high interest rates may persist [2][3] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve cuts rates too quickly, it could stimulate demand and inflation, hindering the achievement of price stability goals [3] - The upcoming annual monetary policy symposium in Jackson Hole may see Powell indicating that after a September rate cut, the Fed will cautiously monitor inflation trends before deciding on further cuts [3] - Current market expectations suggest more than two rate cuts within the year, which has led to a decline in two-year Treasury yields from around 4% in May to approximately 3.7% [3] Group 3 - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the S&P 500 has increased from 21.4 times expected earnings in mid-May to 22.5 times, reflecting the belief that lower interest rates support corporate profit expectations [4] - Should the Federal Reserve signal a hawkish approach and yields rise, the P/E ratio may revert to May levels, potentially leading to a nearly 5% decline in the S&P 500 to around 6100 points [4] - Analysts suggest that for investors looking to avoid significant disappointment in returns, now is not an opportune time to aggressively buy stocks [4]