关键的一周，黄金变脸！

Group 1: Gold Market - Last week, spot gold fell by 1.8%, marking the largest weekly decline since the end of June, closing at $3,335.90 [1] - Today, during European trading hours, gold surged over $20, currently hovering around $3,348 [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are trading within a sideways channel, with recent RSI moving towards oversold conditions, suggesting potential further declines towards $3,272 or even $3,209 in the medium to long term [16] Group 2: U.S. Stock Market - Last week, the Dow Jones increased by 1.74%, the S&P 500 rose by 0.94%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.81%, with both the Dow and S&P 500 reaching intraday all-time highs [2] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is expected to address future monetary policy and the Fed's independence [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in September exceeds 92%, with at least one more cut anticipated within the year [6] - Despite recent highs in U.S. stock indices, risks are accumulating, with the S&P 500's year-to-date performance showing signs of weakening and historical cumulative gains reaching high percentiles [6] Group 3: U.S.-India Trade Relations - The U.S. trade delegation unexpectedly canceled its visit to India, casting a shadow over tariff negotiations [4] - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports, raising the overall tariff rate to 50% [4] - Concerns are growing regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation, with a recent U.S. inflation indicator showing the fastest increase in three years [4] Group 4: International Relations - Significant progress has been reported in U.S.-Russia discussions regarding Ukraine, with potential security guarantees being offered [8] - The upcoming meeting involving leaders from Germany, France, the UK, Italy, Finland, NATO, and the EU indicates a strong European interest in the negotiations [8][12] - The situation is described as a "Himalayan banquet," with differing interests between the U.S. and European leaders regarding the terms of peace [12] Group 5: Middle East Tensions - The Houthi forces launched a hypersonic missile at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport in response to ongoing military actions in Gaza and Yemen [13] - Israeli military reported intercepting a missile from Yemen, highlighting the escalating tensions in the region [13]