大盘创十年新高,创业板贵了吗?

Core Insights - The A-share market continues to show strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.85% to 3728 points and the ChiNext Index increasing by 2.84% to 2606 points, indicating a potential "slow bull" market trend [2] - Significant milestones were reached, including the Shanghai Composite Index hitting its highest level since August 21, 2015, and the total market capitalization of A-shares surpassing 100 trillion yuan for the first time in history [2] - The ChiNext Index has outperformed other mainstream fund types this year, suggesting it remains undervalued despite its strong performance [2] Valuation Metrics - As of the latest data, the ChiNext Index's PE ratio stands at 36.34x, with a 10-year percentile of 26.51% and a 5-year percentile of 46.33%, indicating a relatively low valuation [6] - The PB ratio is at 4.7x, with a 10-year percentile of 48.13% and a 5-year percentile of 46.88% [6] - The PS ratio is 3.72x, with a 10-year percentile of 29.87% and a 5-year percentile of 46.98%, further supporting the notion of undervaluation [6] Growth Drivers - The ChiNext Index is expected to benefit from dual drivers of policy and liquidity, with rising expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and domestic policies aimed at reducing financing costs [6] - Strong fundamentals in key sectors such as new energy (29% weight), biomedicine (12% weight), and technology (36% weight) are anticipated to drive growth, with projected revenue and net profit compound annual growth rates of approximately 20% and 29%, respectively, from 2025 to 2026 [6] Historical Performance - Historical data shows that the ChiNext Index has performed exceptionally well in past bull markets, with a rebound of approximately 64% from September 24, 2024, to August 15, 2025, indicating potential for further gains [7] - Comparisons of past bull markets reveal that the ChiNext Index has consistently outperformed other indices, making it a key target for investors looking to capitalize on the current market trend [9]