印度需求点燃出口热潮，棕榈油冲高后惊现回落，后市能否继续追高？

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in palm oil prices is primarily driven by supply concerns from Indonesia due to government actions against illegal plantations, alongside positive export data from Malaysia fueled by demand for the Indian festival Diwali [3][4][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On August 18, Dalian Commodity Exchange palm oil futures initially rose nearly 3% before closing with a gain of 1.89%, reaching a seven-month high of 9672 yuan/ton [1]. - Indonesia's military has seized 3.1 million hectares of illegal palm plantations, representing 20% of the country's official plantation area, leading to expectations of reduced palm oil production [3]. - The Indonesian government's crackdown may result in lower yields, impacting future palm oil production growth, with projections indicating that the increase in production may not meet consumption growth by 2025 [3]. Group 2: Export and Production Insights - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1-15 are estimated at 537,183 tons, a 34.5% increase from the same period last month, driven by demand for the Diwali festival [4]. - Data from SPPOMA indicates a slight decrease in palm oil yield but an increase in extraction rates, suggesting a mixed production outlook for Malaysia [4]. - The overall domestic supply and demand for palm oil in China remains relaxed, with limited procurement for September, indicating a broader market stability [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Indonesian government's intensified actions against illegal plantations could significantly affect future supply, with an additional 3.7 million hectares under scrutiny [4]. - Domestic oil prices are expected to follow international trends, with potential for a phase of adjustment after recent price increases, suggesting a cautious approach to trading strategies [4][5]. - Analysts recommend maintaining low long positions while being cautious about chasing higher prices due to potential market fluctuations [5].