美联储9月降息并非板上钉钉？市场面临变盘风险！

Group 1 - The bond market has reduced expectations for a 50 basis point rate cut in September following concerning Producer Price Index (PPI) data, but traders remain overly optimistic about the speed and scale of the Federal Reserve's easing plans [1] - Tim Duy, Chief Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, predicts a "chaotic insurance cut" in September, but Powell is unlikely to commit to further cuts, linking policy to subsequent data which introduces uncertainty for fixed income markets [1][2] - Current market pricing indicates three rate cuts this year, totaling 100 basis points over the next 12 months [1] Group 2 - Duy emphasizes that the September rate cut is not guaranteed and is contingent on upcoming data, which may frustrate market participants [2] - He notes that consumer resilience and strong retail sales data contrast with persistent inflation, which could hinder rate cuts; the median forecast for inflation in Q4 2025 is 3% [2][4] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is expected to be 3.1% year-on-year in Q4, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [2] Group 3 - The median forecast for the unemployment rate in Q4 is 4.4%, lower than previous estimates, indicating a potential shift in labor market dynamics [4] - Duy suggests that the dual mandate of the Fed complicates the likelihood of rate cuts, leading to hesitance among some board members, predicting only two cuts this year [4] - Since June of last year, the outlook for the Fed's dual mandate has deteriorated [6] Group 4 - Powell is expected to defend the Fed's independence in an upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, maintaining cautious language regarding monetary policy [6]