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青海、江西接连“断供”疑云,碳酸锂上方还有多少空间?
Jin Shi Shu Ju·2025-08-18 10:23

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate futures market experienced a significant increase, with the main contract closing up 4.67% at 89,240 yuan/ton, reaching a peak of over 90,000 yuan/ton, marking a new high [1][3] - The spot market mirrored this trend, with battery-grade lithium carbonate index prices rising to 84,794 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,069 yuan/ton from the previous working day [1][3] - Concerns over supply disruptions due to regulatory issues affecting lithium salt production in Qinghai and uncertainties in production from Jiangxi have heightened market anxiety [3][4] Group 2 - The average lithium oxide grade in Jiangxi's lithium mica mines is only 0.2%-0.5%, while the new mineral resources law requires a grade of 20.4% for independent registration as lithium mines, leading to potential production halts [4] - Eight mining companies in Yichun are required to complete resource verification reports by September 30, with risks of production stoppages until mining rights are officially changed to lithium mines [4] - Despite high inventory levels, there are signs of a marginal shift in supply-demand dynamics, with weekly supply slightly increasing and downstream retail sales rising, indicating a potential recovery in market sentiment [5][6] Group 3 - The market remains cautious due to the ongoing approval processes for mining rights in Yichun, which could increase compliance costs and affect price stability [6] - Current lithium resource production halts have not significantly altered the overall supply-demand surplus, and refineries still hold 1-2 months of raw material inventory, limiting short-term supply impacts [6] - The trading logic in the lithium carbonate market has shifted towards macro narratives and expectations surrounding mining rights events, with a focus on the critical deadline at the end of September [6]