华源证券：给予三棵树增持评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong performance of Sankeshu (三棵树) in the first half of 2025, with significant growth in net profit and a positive outlook for future earnings, leading to an "Accumulate" rating from Huayuan Securities [1][4]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.816 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 436 million yuan, up 107.53% [1]. - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 3.686 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.24% year-on-year, while net profit reached 331 million yuan, an increase of 102.97% [1]. Product Segmentation - The home decoration wall paint segment reported revenue of 1.574 billion yuan in H1 2025, up 8.4% year-on-year, with sales volume increasing by 5.4% and average price rising by 2.8% [2]. - The engineering wall paint segment experienced a revenue decline of 2.3% in H1 2025, with a revenue of 1.795 billion yuan [2]. - The waterproof membrane segment faced a significant revenue drop of 28.6% in H1 2025, totaling 460 million yuan [2]. Margin Improvement - The overall gross margin for H1 2025 was 32.3%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to product structure adjustments and a decrease in raw material costs [2]. Cost Management - The company maintained a period expense ratio of 23.67% in H1 2025, a decrease of 1.57 percentage points year-on-year, with reductions in sales, management, and R&D expenses [3]. - Operating cash flow improved significantly, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 351 million yuan, an increase of 393 million yuan compared to the same period last year [3]. Market Position and Outlook - The company is positioned as a leading player in the national paint industry, benefiting from a unique market advantage and effective channel strategy, suggesting a potential recovery in performance [3]. - Earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 predict net profits of 802 million, 1.001 billion, and 1.302 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.09, 1.36, and 1.77 yuan [4].