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欧圣电气(301187):关税影响Q2发货节奏 下半年有望提速

Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 880 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 120 million, also up 18.5% year-on-year. The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 110 million, reflecting the same year-on-year growth of 18.5% [1] - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 350 million, a year-on-year decline of 14.6%, with a net profit of 50 million, down 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit excluding non-recurring items of 50 million, down 4.3% year-on-year [1] Operational Analysis - The decline in Q2 revenue is attributed to disruptions in shipment schedules due to tariffs in North America and the relatively short production time of the Malaysian factory, leading to an increase in inventory by 190 million compared to Q1. However, Q3 is expected to be a traditional peak season for promotions, and shipments are anticipated to accelerate in the second half of the year as overseas factory output stabilizes [2] - The overall gross margin in Q2 was 38.3%, an increase of 5.0 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to structural impacts on shipments. The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses were 15.1%, 6.8%, 3.8%, and -2.9%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of +1.57 percentage points, +3.71 percentage points, -1.19 percentage points, and -1.04 percentage points [2] Comprehensive Impact - The net profit margin attributable to the parent company in Q2 was 15.2%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [3] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The company has a leading position in overseas capacity layout, with the Malaysian factory effectively covering exposure in the U.S. The advantages of Malaysia as a global tariff haven remain, and the company is expected to benefit from a threefold drive of market share growth, new product categories, and new markets in the second half of the year. Additionally, the company's elderly care products have received certifications in multiple countries and have recently been included in the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's list of pilot projects for intelligent elderly care service robots, indicating potential benefits from industry trends and policy catalysts. The projected net profits attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 are 330 million, 430 million, and 580 million, representing year-on-year growth of 30.9%, 30.3%, and 32.9%, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 28, 21, and 16 times, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]