芦哲：美联储全年降息预期仍存在回调风险——海外周报

Core Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. July core CPI has ended a five-month streak of underperformance, leading to increased market bets on interest rate cuts, which in turn strengthens expectations for an economic soft landing [2] - The July PPI significantly exceeded expectations, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts, with uncertainties surrounding the duration and extent of these effects on wholesale, retail, and end-consumer prices [2][6] - The market's current pricing of 0.845 rate cuts in September and 2.187 cuts for the year is deemed overly optimistic, with potential for a downward adjustment in rate cut expectations before the September FOMC meeting [2][6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. July retail sales increased by 0.5%, slightly below the expected 0.6%, but showed resilience with two consecutive months of growth despite a decline in consumer confidence [4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q3 2025 GDP growth of 2.5%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates it at 2.06% [5] Inflation Data - The July CPI increased by 0.2% and the core CPI by 0.32%, both meeting expectations, indicating continued moderate inflation [6] - The July PPI rose by 0.95%, significantly above the expected 0.2%, with core PPI also reaching its highest level since 2022, suggesting that tariff pressures are being transmitted to wholesalers [6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data, the market saw a rise in equities and long-term bond yields, but subsequent PPI data and retail sales growth led to a cooling of rate cut expectations, impacting stock performance [3][4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.94% and 0.81%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.316% [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed officials have expressed skepticism about aggressive rate cuts, with some suggesting that a 50 basis point cut in September may not align with the current economic environment [4] - The expectation is for two rate cuts this year, potentially in September and December, with a more pessimistic scenario predicting only one cut in October [2][6]