闪评丨美国代表团取消赴印度行程 美印关税磋商前景不明

Core Points - The trade relationship between the US and India is deteriorating rapidly, with the US seeking greater market access in sensitive sectors like agriculture and dairy, which India cannot agree to [1] - The US has announced a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting from the 27th of this month due to India's continued import of Russian oil, potentially raising tariffs on some Indian exports to the US to 50% [2] - India's exports to the US account for nearly 20% of its total exports, making it heavily reliant on the US market, while the US's dependence on Indian imports is relatively low [3] Trade Dynamics - The imposition of "secondary tariffs" could significantly impact the Indian economy, as the US's reliance on Indian exports is minimal compared to India's reliance on the US [3] - The structural importance of Indian exports in its economy means that tariffs would have substantial direct, long-term, and indirect effects on India [3] - The US is also applying tariffs on other countries, indicating a need for a balanced approach in its policy towards India, suggesting that negotiations may continue to avoid the full implementation of the 50% tariff [3] Strategic Responses - India is likely to adopt strategies similar to Brazil, which has diversified its export destinations and supported domestic enterprises in response to US tariffs [6] - India plans to strengthen domestic demand and purchasing power to offset some of the export losses while continuing diplomatic negotiations with the US [6] - The Indian government is expected to maintain a balanced foreign policy, particularly in its dealings with major powers, to mitigate the impact of US tariffs [6]