关税博弈：21世纪全球经济的隐形战场

Core Insights - The book "Tariff Games" reveals the ongoing transformation of the global economic order through the lens of contemporary tariff battles, highlighting the critical economic conflicts of the 21st century [1] Group 1: Historical Context of Tariffs - Tariffs have been a symbol of national sovereignty since the establishment of Spain's "Million Tax" in the 15th century, serving as a tool for major powers in economic competition [2] - The book discusses historical cases such as the Spanish Empire, the British East India Company, and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the U.S. to illustrate how tariff policies have shaped economic hegemony [2] - The analysis extends to modern events like the breakdown of WTO Doha Round negotiations, the escalation of chip tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war, and the implementation of the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism [2] Group 2: Three-Dimensional Tariff Game Model - The book introduces a "Three-Dimensional Tariff Game Model" to analyze tariff commitments and actual actions from a macro perspective, including G20 summit outcomes and regional agreements like RCEP and CPTPP [3][4] - It examines how multinational companies, exemplified by Tesla's Shanghai Gigafactory and the rise of manufacturing in Vietnam, leverage tariff differences to reshape global supply chains [4] - The micro perspective reveals the impact of tariff changes on small trade entities, using data from Yiwu's small commodity market and German SMEs [4] Group 3: Tariff Revolution in the Digital Age - The book highlights the unprecedented challenges to traditional tariff systems posed by the rise of cross-border e-commerce, which surpassed $4 trillion in annual transactions, and advancements in 3D printing technology [5] - It introduces the concept of "digital tariffs," analyzing emerging tax types like data flow taxes and algorithm patent taxes, which could lead to a restructuring of existing rules [5] - The conflicts between the EU's Digital Services Tax (DST) and the U.S. Section 301 investigations illustrate the new dimensions of tariff battles in the digital era [5] Group 4: Solutions to Tariff Conflicts - The book proposes practical solutions to break the cycle of "tariff wars-inflation-recession," including the establishment of a "tariff elasticity mechanism" inspired by Singapore's variable tariff system to address supply chain shocks [6] - It suggests creating a "digital tariff sandbox" to explore new tax paradigms for cross-border data flow in free trade zones [6] - The promotion of "tariff capacity building" aims to enhance the participation of developing countries in rule-making processes [6] Group 5: Broader Implications - "Tariff Games" serves as a key to understanding 21st-century international relations, especially as global supply chains undergo "de-risking" and geopolitical and economic interests intertwine [10] - The ongoing evolution of tariff battles will reshape perceptions of the global economic order for policymakers, business leaders, and readers interested in world dynamics [11]