从“关键伙伴”到头号靶子，为何特朗普眼中印度“光环”不再？

Core Viewpoint - The deterioration of US-India relations under the Trump administration is marked by aggressive trade measures and geopolitical tensions, leading to a significant reassessment of India's strategic value to the US [1][5]. Trade Relations - The US has imposed tariffs as high as 50% on Indian goods, significantly exceeding tariffs on China, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [1][8]. - In 2024, India's exports to the US are projected to be around $87 billion, constituting approximately 18% of India's total exports, highlighting India's dependency on the US market [7]. Strategic Value - India's strategic value has been re-evaluated, with the Trump administration viewing it more as a transactional partner rather than a key ally in countering China [3][5]. - The lack of immediate returns from India in terms of strategic cooperation has led to a perception of India as a burden rather than an asset [3][5]. Economic Vulnerability - India's economic structure is heavily reliant on low-tech, labor-intensive exports, making it vulnerable to US trade policies, as these goods have many substitutes in the global market [7][8]. - The potential impact of the 50% tariff could lead to a 40%-50% reduction in Indian exports to the US, severely affecting sectors like textiles and jewelry [8]. Leadership Dynamics - The personal dynamics between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Modi have exacerbated tensions, with Modi's actions perceived as challenges to Trump's authority [10][12]. - In contrast, Pakistan's approach of aligning with Trump's narrative has resulted in a more favorable treatment from the US, highlighting the importance of personal rapport in international relations [11][12]. Conclusion - The combination of diminished strategic value, economic weaknesses, and imbalanced leadership interactions has left India in a precarious position, potentially transforming from a key partner to a target of US pressure [12].