最后一次参会 鲍威尔会在全球央行年会上说什么

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around the anticipation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, particularly following weak employment data in July, which has heightened market expectations for a rate reduction in September [1][2][3] - The two-year U.S. Treasury yield has seen a significant decline, dropping to approximately 3.75%, which is just above its lowest levels in recent months, indicating a market shift towards aggressive rate cut bets [1][3] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to align with market expectations during his speech at the Jackson Hole conference, with a strong likelihood of at least a 25 basis point cut in September, as market participants are betting on a 85% chance of this outcome [3][4] Group 2 - The upcoming employment report on September 5 will play a crucial role in determining the Fed's decision, with expectations that a weak report would support a 25 basis point cut [4] - Powell's tenure has been marked by a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, often waiting for clearer economic signals before making decisions, which has been evident in his past speeches at the Jackson Hole conference [5][6] - Despite external pressures, Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the need to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before making policy adjustments, which has led to a delayed response in the Fed's rate-cutting cycle [7]