供应收缩预期短期内难被证伪 焦炭高位整理价格易涨难跌

Group 1 - Since late July, coking coal futures prices have maintained a high-level fluctuation pattern due to improved long-term fundamentals in the coal market and a 90-day extension of tariff exemptions between China and the U.S., which alleviated export pressures [1] - The sixth round of price increases for coking coal was implemented on August 14, with prices at 1520 RMB/ton for wet quenching coke and 1460 RMB/ton for ex-factory prices, leading to improved profitability for most coking enterprises [2] - As of August 15, the total inventory of coking coal decreased to 8.8742 million tons, reflecting a continuous trend of inventory reduction across various segments of the industry [3] Group 2 - Current policies, particularly the "anti-involution" policy, are expected to support coking coal prices by suppressing disorderly competition and enhancing supply quality, contributing to a generally optimistic market outlook [4] - Despite a slight increase in supply, demand remains stable, with the average daily production of coking coal and steel maintaining resilience, indicating a balanced supply-demand dynamic [3][4] - The overall macroeconomic environment is optimistic, which, combined with stable supply and demand fundamentals, is expected to drive coking coal futures to continue high-level operations [4]