基本面偏空 纯碱向上空间较为有限

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the soda ash price has rebounded from a low level since July, with the SA2601 contract showing a rebound of over 15% [1] - The pricing of soda ash in the first half of the year was mainly based on supply and demand, while in the second half, prices will be influenced by both supply-demand dynamics and policy expectations [1] - The soda ash fundamentals remain bearish due to continuously increasing production capacity and inventory, which exert significant downward pressure on prices [1] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" policy introduced in early July aims to curb disorderly competition and has led to a rebound in various domestic futures, including soda ash, driven by policy expectations [2] - Although the direct impact of the "anti-involution" on soda ash is currently limited, rising coal prices have slightly increased the cost of soda ash, alleviating some demand-side pressure [2] - The soda ash industry is undergoing a transition towards lower-cost production methods, with a trend of high-cost ammonia soda enterprises being phased out [2] Group 3 - The soda ash industry is entering an adjustment cycle starting in 2024, primarily due to high profits driving significant capacity expansion, with nearly 10 million tons of new capacity added in the past three years [3] - By the first half of 2025, an additional 2.1 million tons of soda ash capacity is expected to be added, leading to a supply growth rate that far exceeds demand growth [3] - As of mid-August 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash production enterprises is approximately 1.89 million tons, indicating significant inventory pressure [3] Group 4 - Demand for soda ash is also weak, primarily due to adjustments in the real estate and photovoltaic industries, resulting in a notable decline in demand from the main downstream sectors [4] - As of mid-August 2025, the daily melting capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased significantly compared to peak levels in 2024, indicating limited demand growth [4] - Although float glass prices have rebounded slightly, the overall demand for glass remains pessimistic due to the ongoing adjustment in the real estate sector [4]