成本支撑减弱叠加供需结构不佳 燃料油维持偏弱走势

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency and the U.S. Energy Information Administration have lowered their forecasts for international oil prices for the next two years due to expectations of oversupply in the oil market, leading to a decline in both domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The recent meeting between U.S. and Russian leaders in Alaska did not yield any agreements but was deemed constructive, indicating a potential de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has contributed to a reduction in international crude oil price premiums [2] - Despite significant differences remaining between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Russia-Ukraine situation, there is a growing optimism that the conflict may cool down, impacting oil market dynamics [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a notable oversupply in the Asian low-sulfur fuel oil market since late July, while high-sulfur fuel oil prices have dropped to a near three-year low due to ample supply and weak downstream demand [3] - The influx of fuel oil arbitrage cargoes into the Asian market has contributed to a stable spot price differential for fuel oil, although trading activity remains weak with significant discrepancies in pricing between buyers and sellers [3] Group 3: Downstream Market Behavior - The shipping, power generation, and refining sectors are the primary consumers of fuel oil, with shipping fuel consumption being the largest segment. Recent data shows a decrease in wholesale outflow of marine heavy oil, attributed to weak domestic market demand and cautious procurement by downstream enterprises [4] - Overall, the expectation of a cooling Russia-Ukraine conflict, combined with a shrinking premium in the international crude oil market and rising oversupply expectations, suggests that the price focus for crude oil may shift downward, further weakening the cost support for fuel oil [4]