碳酸锂期货创阶段新高！后市关注供需面改善的持续性

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that lithium carbonate futures have risen significantly due to supply contraction expectations, despite some improvements in the market fundamentals [1][2][3] - As of August 18, the main contract LC2511 reached a peak of 90,100 yuan/ton, closing at 89,240 yuan/ton, marking a 4.67% increase [1] - Analysts highlight that the upcoming traditional peak season raises questions about supply and demand improvements in the lithium carbonate industry [1][2] Group 2 - Weekly lithium carbonate production reached approximately 20,000 tons as of August 14, an increase of 424 tons from the previous week, driven by higher lithium spodumene processing rates [2] - Despite the shutdown of the Jiangxia Wokeng mine by CATL, the impact on lithium carbonate production is expected to be minimal in the short term [2] - Current weekly inventory of lithium carbonate is 142,300 tons, showing a slight decrease of 162 tons, primarily from smelting plants, indicating a trend of "increased production and inventory reduction" as the peak season approaches [2] Group 3 - The price of lithium spodumene has also increased, with some Australian mine auction prices exceeding $1,000/ton, providing strong support for lithium carbonate futures [3] - However, there has been a noticeable decline in new energy vehicle sales since July, with July's domestic sales at 1.037 million units, down 7.8% month-on-month, which could pressure lithium carbonate prices if demand growth slows [3] - Short-term outlook suggests that supply disturbances remain, but demand support from the peak season may keep lithium carbonate prices stable [3] Group 4 - In the medium to long term, sustained high prices of lithium carbonate may incentivize high-cost mines and smelting operations to resume production, potentially increasing supply elasticity and altering the current tight balance [4] - Market sentiment driven by news may have a greater impact than actual changes in fundamentals, with improvements in the lithium salt supply-demand balance relying on substantial reductions in mining output [4] - The production situation in regions like Qinghai and Jiangxi remains uncertain, which could lead to price increases, but the arrival of overseas resources may alleviate domestic supply shortages [4]