A股总市值突破100万亿元，是低估了还是高估了？

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has reached a significant milestone with its total market capitalization surpassing 100 trillion RMB, indicating a strong recovery and potential for further growth in the coming years [3][4][6] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) briefly broke through 3731 points, marking a nearly ten-year high, although it did not close above this level [3] - The total market capitalization of the A-share market has increased by nearly 50% compared to the 5178 points in 2015, and is more than double the market cap when the SSE was around 3700 points in 2015 [3] Comparison with Global Markets - Despite the A-share market's total market cap exceeding 100 trillion RMB, it is equivalent to only 14 trillion USD, significantly lower than the US stock market's approximately 62 trillion USD [4] - The combined market capitalization of major US tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon has reached around 100 trillion RMB, surpassing the total market cap of over 5400 A-share companies [4][5] Valuation Insights - The current valuation of the A-share market is around 15 times earnings, which is considered reasonable compared to the US market's average valuation exceeding 30 times, with the Nasdaq reaching about 40 times [5][6] - A potential valuation correction for the A-share market to 18-20 times earnings is anticipated, especially if the profitability of listed companies improves [5][6] Future Outlook - The year 2025 is expected to be significant for the revaluation of Chinese assets, with the A-share and Hong Kong markets currently undervalued compared to their global counterparts [6] - The influx of new capital into emerging markets, particularly if the Federal Reserve enters a new rate-cutting cycle, could benefit undervalued Chinese assets [6] - The A-share market's growth is contingent on maintaining investor confidence and ensuring that a significant portion of market capitalization growth is driven by stock price performance [6]