鲍威尔最后一次参会，会顺应9月降息预期吗？

Core Viewpoint - Investors in U.S. Treasuries are closely monitoring signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at the upcoming Jackson Hole global central bank conference, particularly regarding interest rate cuts expected in September [1][3]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates an 85% probability of at least a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with some traders betting on a 50 basis point cut [4]. - Powell's upcoming speech is expected to align with market expectations, despite mixed inflation data and a softening labor market [4][5]. - The decision on the September rate cut will depend on economic data released before the meeting, particularly employment reports [5]. Group 2: Economic Context - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates this year to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy, leading to a divergence among policymakers regarding the timing of potential rate cuts [3][7]. - Recent data showed a significant increase in the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in July, complicating the inflation outlook [3]. - The labor market's weakness is seen as a factor that could prompt Powell to adopt a more dovish stance [4]. Group 3: Powell's Historical Context - Powell's tenure has been characterized by a pragmatic approach to monetary policy, responding to various economic challenges since he took office [6]. - His past speeches at Jackson Hole have had significant market impacts, including unexpected warnings about inflation and clear signals regarding rate cuts [6][7]. - The upcoming speech will be Powell's last as Fed Chairman at this event, marking a notable moment in his career [1][5].