TF Securities(SH:601162) 智通财经网·2025-08-19 00:03Core Viewpoint - The report from Tianfeng Securities highlights the benefits of the "anti-involution" policy in the international engineering sector, focusing on price elasticity and downstream profitability improvements as key drivers for investment opportunities [1][3]. Group 1: International Engineering Sector - The international engineering sector benefits from price elasticity, with rising expectations for resource prices, particularly coal. Companies like Northern International, which have significant coal business, are expected to see profit contributions of over 600 million in 2024 and potential profits of 770 million and 950 million in 2026 under neutral and optimistic scenarios respectively [1][3]. - Downstream industries such as steel and cement are expected to improve profitability due to anti-involution measures, which may lead to increased demand for upgrading production lines, benefiting specialized engineering companies like China National Materials and China Steel International [1][3]. Group 2: Traditional Low-Valued State-Owned Enterprises - For traditional low-valued state-owned enterprises, the focus should be on dividend capacity, price elasticity, and technological transformation. The market share of nine major state-owned construction enterprises increased to 59.89% in Q1 2025, indicating strong order acquisition capabilities [2]. - The anticipated rise in commodity prices is expected to enhance the performance of construction companies involved in resource businesses, with recommendations for companies like China Chemical and China Railway [2]. - The construction industry is projected to benefit from structural high prosperity in technology-driven infrastructure demands, with recommendations for companies like Tunnel Co. and attention to China State Construction International [2]. Group 3: Steel Structure Sector - The steel structure sector is divided into manufacturing and installation. Upstream supply-side reforms are expected to benefit steel prices, leading to improved profits for manufacturing companies like Honglu Steel Construction, with potential net profits reaching 347 yuan per ton in Q3 2022 [4]. - Installation companies, such as Jinggong Steel Structure, are expected to accelerate industry consolidation, transitioning towards smart, green, and prefabricated construction. The overseas orders for Jinggong Steel Structure increased by 94% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, indicating improved profitability and cash flow [5].