新一波措施落地，楼市迎来转机？

Group 1 - The real estate market is experiencing adjustments due to both short-term supply-demand imbalances and long-term demographic issues, particularly negative population growth that began in 2022 and has continued for three years [2] - The rapid development of the real estate market from 2009 to 2019 was largely driven by unprecedented demographic dividends, which are now diminishing due to slowing population growth [2] - Recent measures to support fertility and stabilize population growth include a childcare subsidy plan starting January 1, 2025, providing 3,600 yuan per child annually until the child turns three, and the implementation of free preschool education from the fall semester of 2025 [2] Group 2 - Additional fertility support measures were initiated last year, with cities already implementing related subsidy programs, and a comprehensive policy framework to encourage childbirth was released on October 28, 2024 [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission indicated that policies related to childcare subsidies and labor wages are being actively developed, with more measures expected to be introduced [3] - An indirect indicator of potential population growth is the increase in marriage registrations, which rose by 109,000 to 3.539 million in the first half of this year, suggesting a possible future increase in birth rates [3] Group 3 - The introduction of these measures is expected to support fertility and may improve the declining population trend, which is positive news for the real estate market [4] - The future direction of the real estate market will be determined by demand, primarily influenced by population factors, and the current construction capacity indicates that supply will not be an issue [4] - Stabilizing population expectations through these measures may lead to a turnaround in the real estate market, improving market sentiment regarding future developments [4]