教授说，很大概率，中国将面临有史以来的一次长时间房价暴涨？验证没？

Core Viewpoint - A professor predicts that housing prices will start to rise in 2025 and experience a significant surge in 2026 due to changes in market supply and demand dynamics [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The professor believes that a substantial reduction in housing supply will lead to a situation where demand exceeds supply, resulting in rising prices starting next year [2]. - The statement from the Vice Premier of the State Council, Liu He, emphasizes that real estate is a pillar industry of the national economy, indicating a policy shift that may increase the likelihood of a rebound in housing prices [4]. Group 2: Challenges to Price Surge - The aging population and declining number of young people are leading to a significant drop in housing demand, which may hinder any potential price surge [7]. - Recent policy measures have aimed to stimulate demand not for a price surge but for long-term stable development of the real estate market, with increased supply of affordable housing for low-income groups [9]. - High household debt levels, currently around 70%, combined with stagnant income growth and rising unemployment, are reducing the purchasing power of ordinary families, making it difficult to support a price surge [11]. Group 3: Current Market Conditions - As of July, only 5 out of 70 major cities saw year-on-year increases in new home prices, while no cities reported increases in second-hand home prices, indicating a divided market [13]. - Core urban areas, particularly first-tier and strong second-tier cities, are showing resilience with some price increases, while third and fourth-tier cities are experiencing price declines due to weak industries and population outflow [15]. Group 4: Recommendations for Households - Households are advised to avoid speculative real estate investments and to purchase homes that align with their financial capabilities, focusing on factors like location and amenities to ensure better value retention [17]. - Diversifying asset allocation is recommended to mitigate risks, rather than concentrating all investments in real estate [19]. - The potential for significant price increases in the short term is low, and caution is advised in interpreting the professor's predictions [21].