美联储，走漏风声

Group 1 - The global market is experiencing a "pre-event" atmosphere with the dollar rising, while gold, U.S. Treasuries, and U.S. stocks are showing limited movement near historical highs, indicating a potential adjustment in positions ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting [1][2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has decreased to 80%, down from 100% previously [3] - Analysts expect Fed Chair Powell to deliver a "hawkish signal" during his speech, with concerns about inflation and slowing employment suggesting a potential "stagflation" scenario [4][5] Group 2 - Citi's dollar positioning indicator has shifted from a slight short to neutral, indicating that investors currently lack a clear net long or short bias, suggesting a market that is beginning to accept a more "hawkish" Fed [6] - The market is not waiting for surprises but is instead digesting the risks of potential disappointment from Powell's speech, with expectations that he may use ambiguous language to prompt market speculation [6]