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宏观经济专题报告:美国通胀风险越来越难对市场构成趋势性压制
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-19 01:53

Group 1 - The core driver of inflation risk in the U.S. is the significant increase in import tariffs, with the effective tariff rate rising to 9.1% as of June 2025, an increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1][10][20] - The current inflation in core goods is primarily driven by high import dependence and low inventory levels in categories such as furniture, apparel, and leisure goods [1][10][28] - The direct impact of tariffs has been significant, with import prices rising approximately 5.4% since early March, indicating that about half of the tariff burden is passed on to consumer prices [1][10][30] Group 2 - The indirect effects of tariffs on domestic goods have shown a slowing trend, with price increases for domestic products that are similar to imported goods starting to decelerate from April onwards [1][10][35] - The correlation between tariffs and inflation increased from March to May but has not deepened further, suggesting a weakening relationship [1][10][39] - If the effective tariff rate rises to 15%, it is estimated that U.S. goods prices could increase by approximately 2.8% based on the average import dependence of 37% and a transmission coefficient of 1/2 [1][10][50] Group 3 - Service inflation has not shown a trend of significant rebound, with core service inflation being the largest contributor to nominal inflation, but expected to be dragged down by a weakening labor market [2][11][54] - The nominal Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to peak at around 3.2% in December 2025, followed by a gradual decline to approximately 2.3% by mid-2026 [2][11][70] - The overall inflation risk is expected to be lower than market expectations, indicating a potential for further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2][11][73]