北新建材(000786)：涂料延续高增 Q2毛利率环比改善

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with expectations for improvement driven by policy support and ongoing strategic initiatives [1][4]. Financial Performance - For H1 2025, the company achieved revenue and net profit of 13.56 billion and 1.93 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 0.3% and 12.9% [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue and net profit were 7.31 billion and 1.09 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 4.5% and 21.9% [1]. - The increase in credit impairment losses was a primary factor for the Q2 performance being below expectations [1]. Segment Performance - Revenue from gypsum boards, metal studs, waterproof membranes, and coatings for H1 2025 was 6.68 billion, 1.14 billion, 1.72 billion, and 2.51 billion yuan, with coatings showing a significant year-on-year growth of 40.8% [2]. - The gross margin for coatings was stable at 31.8%, with Q2 gross margin at 31.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.2% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6 percentage points [2]. Cost and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio for H1 2025 was 13.4%, a slight increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses rising due to increased channel investments in the coatings business [3]. - Operating cash flow for H1 2025 was 0.96 billion yuan, down 52.9% year-on-year, primarily due to previous year's receivables and credit policies affecting cash flow in early 2025 [3]. Market Outlook and Strategic Initiatives - Retail sales of construction and decoration materials increased by 2.2% year-on-year in the first seven months of 2025, with policy support expected to boost retail consumption [3]. - The company announced plans to build production lines for 8 million square meters of paper-faced gypsum boards and 20,000 tons of light steel studs, enhancing its competitive position in target markets [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company revised its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting net profits of 4.03 billion, 4.72 billion, and 5.40 billion yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment of approximately 11% [4]. - The target price for the company is set at 31.07 yuan, with a maintained "buy" rating despite short-term sales pressures [4].