邓正红能源软实力：俄罗斯通过“印度清算通道”实现制裁下的资源变现 油价走高

Core Insights - Russia maintains its position as the world's second-largest crude oil exporter by utilizing the "Indian settlement channel" to monetize resources under sanctions [1][3] - Oil prices are experiencing volatility due to the Ukrainian attacks and expectations of a trilateral meeting, with a shift in Russian oil exports from the West to the East [1][4] - The G7's oil price cap mechanism faces potential counteractions from Indian refiners, indicating a complex geopolitical landscape [4] Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - As of August 18, international oil prices rose, with West Texas Intermediate crude settling at $63.42 per barrel (up 0.99%) and Brent crude at $66.60 per barrel (up 1.14%) [1] - The Ukrainian government has intensified attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, including a drone strike on a fuel station in the Tambov region, leading to a suspension of supplies through the Druzhba pipeline [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Implications - Peter Navarro criticized India's continued purchase of Russian oil, suggesting it funds the Russia-Ukraine conflict and undermines India's status as a U.S. strategic partner [2] - The current geopolitical situation reflects a complex interplay of energy soft power, with Russia leveraging its oil resources to navigate sanctions and maintain influence [3] Group 3: Future Projections - Russian oil exports are expected to continue the "West decrease, East increase" trend, with Asian market share potentially reaching 65% by 2025 [4] - The G7's oil price cap may face challenges from Indian refiners, while Europe's energy transition could be delayed due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [4]