现在的可控核聚变，还有“永远的五十年”这个魔咒吗？

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. marks a significant step in the country's strategy for controllable nuclear fusion engineering and commercialization, indicating a three-step investment plan led by national will, focusing on semiconductor and AI development in the short term, infrastructure upgrades through mega projects in the medium term, and a long-term commitment to the energy revolution through controllable nuclear fusion [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - China Fusion Energy Co., Ltd. was officially established on July 22 in Shanghai, under the leadership of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) [2]. - The company will focus on overall design, technology verification, digital R&D, and the establishment of technology and capital operation platforms [2]. Group 2: Strategic Investment Plan - The national investment plan includes short-term acceleration of semiconductor and AI industries, medium-term infrastructure upgrades led by mega projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station, and long-term investments in controllable nuclear fusion [1][2]. - The roadmap indicates that by 2035, a fusion engineering experimental reactor is expected to achieve an output of 100-200 MW, with grid connection planned around 2050 [1][60]. Group 3: Technological Landscape - Controllable nuclear fusion is categorized into two main approaches: magnetic confinement and inertial confinement, with the Tokamak and stellarator representing magnetic confinement, and laser fusion and Z-pinch representing inertial confinement [1][3]. - The Tokamak route is currently the most mature and mainstream globally, with significant breakthroughs achieved by China, including the "China Circulation No. 3" device reaching temperatures of 117 million degrees Celsius for ions and 160 million degrees Celsius for electrons [1][2]. Group 4: International Comparison - The U.S. National Ignition Facility achieved laser fusion ignition in 2022, but its energy output remains significantly lower than the total energy consumed by the system [1][6]. - Both China and the U.S. are pursuing different technological routes, with China focusing on high-temperature superconducting Tokamak technology due to its rare earth resource advantages, while U.S. companies are increasingly promoting inertial confinement methods [1][2][41]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The commercial progress of controllable nuclear fusion is expected to break free from the "50 years" curse, with initial commercialization potentially achievable within a decade [2][60]. - The private sector is also seeing increased investment, with startups like Energy Singularity aiming to build high-temperature superconducting Tokamak devices by 2027, targeting an energy gain of Q>10 [1][58].