8.18纯碱日评：纯碱市场刚需主导 弱势难改

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a weak and fluctuating trend, with prices remaining stable but under pressure due to weak downstream demand and cautious purchasing behavior from enterprises [2][6]. Price Analysis - As of August 18, 2023, the price range for light soda ash in various regions is as follows: Northwest at 1050-1200 CNY/ton, Northeast at 1330-1410 CNY/ton. Heavy soda ash prices are 1050-1180 CNY/ton in the Northwest and 1360-1520 CNY/ton in the Northeast [2]. - The soda ash price index on August 18 shows a decline, with the light soda ash index at 1228.57 (down 1.43, -0.12%) and the heavy soda ash index at 1272.86 (down 11.43, -0.89%) [3]. Futures Market Dynamics - On August 18, the main soda ash futures contract SA2601 opened at 1398 CNY/ton and closed at 1386 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily decline of 1.56%. The trading range was between 1370 and 1413 CNY/ton, with total open interest at 1,398,920 contracts, down by 10,970 contracts [5]. - The futures market is characterized by weak fluctuations, driven by supply-demand imbalances, with manufacturers accumulating inventory and weak downstream demand suppressing price increases [5]. Market Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating trend in the short term due to a strong supply and weak demand situation, with close attention needed on inventory changes and recovery in downstream demand [6].