特朗普求情也不管用，中国这次不买了！美国700万吨大豆恐烂在地里，大赢家浮出水面

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges as China reduces its imports, leading to a potential surplus of 7 million tons of U.S. soybeans, while Brazil emerges as a major beneficiary in the soybean trade [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Soybean Industry - The U.S. soybean industry has historically relied on the Chinese market, with China importing 221.4 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. in 2024, accounting for 21.1% of total imports [1]. - The U.S. soybean farmers are experiencing a critical situation as the harvest season approaches, but China has closed its market, prompting concerns from U.S. officials [1][5]. - The U.S. agricultural sector's dependency on China has not improved over the past decade, leading to vulnerabilities in the supply chain [5][7]. Group 2: China's Soybean Procurement Strategy - China has implemented a "Soybean Revitalization Plan" to boost domestic production and reduce reliance on imported soybeans, while also diversifying its import sources [3]. - Brazil's soybeans can enter China duty-free, making them more competitive in terms of pricing and supply stability compared to U.S. soybeans [3][5]. - China's procurement rhythm has shifted, with orders completed earlier in the year, indicating a strategic change in sourcing [5]. Group 3: Brazil's Position in the Market - Brazil has become the world's largest soybean producer and exporter, with exports to China valued at $19 billion in the first half of the year, representing 74.6% of its total soybean exports [5]. - The increase in Brazil's soybean production is driven by rising international demand and improved yield per hectare [5][7]. - Brazil's strong political and trade relationships with China have further solidified its position in the global soybean market [3][7].