瑞银上调2026年黄金目标价，黄金ETF基金(159937)近1月日均成交6.71亿元，杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会将至备受世界瞩目

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund is experiencing fluctuations, with a recent decline of 0.20% and a 3.34% increase over the past three months, indicating a mixed short-term performance while long-term prospects remain positive due to macroeconomic factors [2][3]. Market Performance - As of August 19, 2025, the gold ETF fund's latest price is 7.39 yuan, with a trading volume of 1.40 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.5% [2]. - The fund has seen an average daily trading volume of 6.71 billion yuan over the past month, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2]. Economic Indicators - The upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference is expected to draw significant investor attention, particularly regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech, which may provide insights into future monetary policy [2]. - UBS has raised its gold price forecasts, projecting a target price of $3,600 per ounce by March 2026 and $3,700 per ounce by June 2026, citing factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [2]. Investment Trends - Short-term expectations indicate a strong fluctuation in gold prices, with medium-term interest rate cuts likely to anchor prices [3]. - The gold ETF fund has experienced a net outflow of 13.31 million yuan recently, but has attracted a total of 88.27 million yuan over the past 12 trading days [3]. Fund Performance Metrics - The gold ETF fund has achieved a net value increase of 75.11% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. - Historical performance shows a maximum monthly return of 10.62% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-year holding period [3]. Risk and Fee Structure - The management fee for the gold ETF fund is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [5]. - The fund has a tracking error of 0.002% over the past three months, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [5].