硅宝科技(300019)：DMC重回提价通道 硅碳负极工业化进程提速

Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to see a rebound in the prices and profitability of its core silicone rubber products due to the upstream DMC returning to a price increase phase, with industrialization of silicon-carbon anode business anticipated to commence in 2025 [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The rating is maintained at "Buy". The company is projected to benefit from the recovery in DMC prices, which will alleviate the pricing pressure on silicone rubber products. The EPS estimates for 2025-2026 have been raised to 0.79 (+0.01) and 0.94 (+0.04) respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 EPS at 1.12. The target price has been adjusted to 26.42, referencing a 2025 PE of 33.45 times [2]. - DMC prices have shown a moderate recovery, which is expected to reduce the downward pressure on silicone rubber prices. DMC, being the core upstream raw material for the company's silicone rubber business, saw a price increase from 10,800 RMB/ton to 12,500 RMB/ton since July, which is anticipated to positively impact product pricing [2][3]. Segment Performance - The construction adhesive segment is experiencing a revenue decline of 5.72% in 2024, but sales volume is increasing. The company maintains its market share due to brand advantages, particularly in the curtain wall and home decoration sectors, despite pressures in the hollow glass market [3]. - In the industrial adhesive segment, electronic, automotive, and photovoltaic revenues are projected to grow by 37.88%, 30.59%, and decline by 9.76% respectively in 2024. The electronic and automotive sectors benefit from "trade-in" incentives and new customer acquisitions, while the photovoltaic sector faces competitive pricing pressures [3]. - The industrialization of silicon-carbon anodes is set to accelerate in 2025, with the company establishing a 3,000 tons/year production line for lithium battery silicon-carbon anodes. This marks a critical transition from small-scale pilot production to industrial-scale manufacturing, with a comprehensive product line that meets various battery system requirements [3].