瑞士百达谭思德：全球经济结构性剧震，四大因素塑造未来十年格局

Group 1: Long-term Investment Perspective - The concept of long-term investment is emphasized by Swiss private partnership firm Pictet, which has a history dating back to 1805 and focuses solely on asset and wealth management [1] - Alexandre Tavazzi, Chief Investment Officer at Pictet, defines a long-term investment horizon as 10 years, with his team analyzing economic conditions and asset class returns over this period [1] Group 2: Global Economic Shifts - The global economy is experiencing "tectonic shifts," with structural impacts being more significant than cyclical ones [5][6] - The U.S. has historically provided three core supports to the global economy: economic stability, security guarantees, and attractive returns on safe assets, but these supports are now being questioned [6][7] Group 3: U.S. Debt and Investment Outlook - The attractiveness of U.S. long-term government bonds is declining, with the current term premium for 10-year bonds being low at 50 to 70 basis points, insufficient to compensate for long-term risks [8] - The U.S. fiscal deficit is approximately 7%, with half of this deficit attributed to interest payments, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt [8] Group 4: European Market Potential - There is a positive outlook for the European market, particularly with Germany's shift in debt policy, allowing for increased investment in infrastructure and defense [9] - The projected economic growth rates for the next decade indicate that Europe may experience faster growth compared to the U.S., making European assets more attractive [10] Group 5: Future Economic Growth Predictions - Economic growth predictions for the next decade show the U.S. at 1.8% and the Eurozone at 1.5%, with China expected to grow at 3.5% and India being the fastest-growing economy [10] - Four key factors—deglobalization, decarbonization, demographics, and dominance of fiscal policy—are expected to shape the economic landscape over the next ten years [10]