研究报告：香港商铺市况回顾及展望

Core Viewpoint - The commercial property market in Hong Kong is experiencing a significant increase in transaction volume, particularly in the industrial and commercial sectors, while the retail sector shows a more stable growth in transaction volume but a decline in transaction value [1][6]. Transaction Volume and Value - In the first half of 2025, the retail market recorded 503 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% compared to 460 transactions in the same period of 2024 [6]. - Despite the increase in transaction volume, the total transaction value for the retail market was only HKD 59.26 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 42.4% from HKD 102.91 billion [6]. Market Dynamics - The retail market is characterized by a "volume up, value down" trend, attributed to significant price declines in recent years, leading to large properties being sold at lower prices [1]. - The vacancy rate in the four core districts (Central, Causeway Bay, Tsim Sha Tsui, and Mong Kok) reached a four-and-a-half-year high of 12.1% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from six months prior [1]. Rental and Price Trends - The rental index for private retail buildings fell by 2.9% in the first five months of 2025, while the selling price index decreased by 3.2% during the same period [2][12]. - The overall commercial property prices are expected to decline by approximately 5% to 10% throughout 2025 due to ongoing market pressures [7]. Consumer Behavior and Market Adaptation - Changes in consumer habits, influenced by immigration trends and shifts in local demographics, have led to a decline in high-end retail expansion and an increase in the closure of chain brands [3]. - New and unique brands are taking advantage of the increased vacancy rates, with notable examples including a flagship store themed around soccer star Cristiano Ronaldo and a furniture store under Alibaba [3]. Future Outlook - The commercial property market is anticipated to maintain a stable transaction volume of around 1,000 transactions for the year, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 5% [6]. - The ongoing "event economy" and upcoming major events are expected to attract more visitors to Hong Kong, potentially stabilizing the retail market [7].