Zheshang Securities(SH:601878) Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-19 05:47Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the ongoing anti-involution policies are leading to a short-term contraction in investment and credit, which may be a normal phenomenon, while prices are showing signs of marginal stabilization [1][2] - The anti-involution policy reflects a trade-off between short-term growth stabilization and long-term high-quality development, with the direct cause being the blockage in the inventory cycle and difficulties in destocking [1] - Demand-boosting policies are expected, with the capital market likely to become an important tool for increasing household wealth, potentially taking over from real estate as a key driver of wealth accumulation [1] Group 2 - The potential downward slope of the economy's growth rate may slow down, and inflation is expected to recover, leading to a shift from synchronous resonance to counteracting effects between growth and inflation [2] - The combined effects of the anti-involution policy, which may lower growth rates in the short term while allowing for price recovery, are likely to result in a systematic increase of about 10-15 basis points in the 10-year government bond yield [2]