特朗普的“大动作”能否撼动油市？答案出人意料！

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite ongoing diplomatic efforts by President Trump to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the global oil and gas market is unlikely to be significantly impacted regardless of the outcome [2][5] - Since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Western sanctions have severely affected Russia's oil and gas industry, leading to a substantial loss of revenue and a reshaping of the global energy landscape [2] - Russia's natural gas now accounts for only 18% of European imports, down from 45% in 2021, while the share of crude oil imports from Russia has dropped from approximately 30% to 3% [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that a comprehensive peace agreement is nearly impossible, and even if temporary or partial ceasefires are proposed, energy imports from Russia by Europe are unlikely to resume as long as President Putin remains in power [3][4] - The U.S. may tighten sanctions, particularly against buyers of Russian energy, but any potential disruptions in Russian supply can be easily compensated by other countries increasing their purchases [4] - The global oil market is entering a phase of oversupply, with the International Energy Agency projecting a surplus of 1.76 million barrels per day by 2025 and 3 million barrels per day by 2026, primarily due to increased production from OPEC+ and the Americas [4]