Morgan Stanley(US:MS) 智通财经网·2025-08-19 08:03Group 1 - Morgan Stanley's chief equity strategist for China, Wang Ying, suggests a shift in stock allocation towards A-shares due to lower sensitivity to geopolitical risks compared to Hong Kong stocks, especially with the pressure of new consumption stock unlocks concentrated in Hong Kong [1] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market has been strong since the beginning of the year, while A-shares have shown significant improvement since June, particularly in sectors like AI, high-end manufacturing, and electric vehicle batteries, which are gaining global recognition [1] Group 2 - Wang Ying holds a positive view on A-share companies listing in Hong Kong, believing it will attract more quality companies and global investors, with a sustained demand for Chinese assets as the Federal Reserve approaches interest rate cuts [2] - In the first seven months of the year, net inflows from southbound funds exceeded $110 billion, surpassing the total for the previous year, with optimism for continued inflows despite a potential slight slowdown [2] Group 3 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin its first interest rate cut in March 2024, with a total of seven cuts expected by 2026, which may occur later than some market expectations [3] - A weaker dollar is anticipated as the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle, which is expected to benefit Chinese assets and lead to a slight appreciation of the RMB against the USD [3] Group 4 - There is a growing confidence in China's technological innovation and the ability to produce world-class companies, leading to increased asset allocation towards China, particularly in AI and high-dividend sectors [4] - The "anti-involution" policy in mainland China is expected to positively impact the stock market over the next 12 to 24 months by optimizing resource allocation and enhancing corporate profitability [4]